ASML HOLDING NV
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $1698.11, ASML HOLDING NV (ASML) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~16.5 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• China is the single largest destination for ASML's shipments at 29% of revenue, ahead of Taiwan at 26% and South Korea at 25%, which makes the company's revenue map a fair proxy for where advanced chipmaking capacity is actually being built. • Concentration is the structural risk and the 20-F quantifies it precisely: ⟦Total net sales to our largest customer amounted to €7,796.7 million, or 23.9% of total net sales in 2025⟧, with ⟦38.0% of total net sales⟧ going to the two largest customers com
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2,157 institutional managers reported holding ASML in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 18% of the company; the top 10 hold 6%. 287 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Fisher Investments, Capital Group (American Funds), FMR (Fidelity), among others. On the short side, 1.7M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 0.4% of shares outstanding (1 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
ASML has cut its share count 5.2% over the past five years, spending $22.45B on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (18 and counting), raised 2 years straight; the current rate is $6.96 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $7.99B in dividends and $8.10B in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.