ALLSTATE CORP
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $260.58, ALLSTATE CORP (ALL) is priced for 13.5% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Today's level asks Allstate to sustain a return on equity of about 14.6% while it is currently earning about 35.5%, so the market is underwriting a large reversion rather than an extrapolation. • The fragile input is weather and reserves, and the cost of insuring against the first is rising: the 10-K reports that ⟦"The total cost of our property catastrophe reinsurance programs, excluding reinstatement premiums, during 2025 was $1.23 billion compared to $1.11 billion during 2024."⟧ • Second-qu
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1,631 institutional managers reported holding ALL in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 80% of the company; the top 10 hold 44%. 130 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, State Street, among others. On the short side, 8.5M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 3% of shares outstanding (5.6 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
ALL has cut its share count 13.2% over the past five years, spending $6.79B on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (18 and counting), raised 12 years straight; the current rate is $4.00 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $2.73B in dividends and $1.88B in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
No open-market insider buys on file at ALL over the trailing three years. Absence is a fact about the company, not a signal. 16 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
ALL's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-02 | -5.4% | +4.6% |
| 2023-11-02 | +2.5% | +13.1% |
| 2024-02-22 | +0.2% | +7.7% |
| 2024-05-02 | -0.5% | -5.9% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
ALL's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-20 (items 7.01, 9.01); 2026-08-05 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-07-16 (items 7.01, 9.01); 2026-07-14 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-06-18 (items 7.01, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.