AGNC Investment Corp.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $10.99, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is priced for 11.0% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• AGNC owns government-guaranteed mortgage paper financed with short-term borrowing, and its own 10-K names the exposure that actually decides results: ⟦"Spread risk is inherent to our business as a levered investor in Agency RMBS."⟧ • Share count has grown about 21% a year over the four years to March 2026, which is the growth engine and the vulnerability in one number, because selling stock above book value only funds the portfolio while the premium to book survives. • Tangible net book value
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654 institutional managers reported holding AGNC in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 38% of the company; the top 10 hold 24%. 103 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, UBS, among others. On the short side, 95.3M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 8% of shares outstanding (7.2 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
AGNC's share count grew 113.2% over the past five years even with $93.00M spent on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (16 and counting); the current rate is $1.44 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $3.82B in dividends.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at AGNC over the trailing three years: 2023: 1 buy totaling $50k. 14 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
AGNC's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-04 | +3.0% | -9.9% |
| 2023-11-07 | +5.5% | +17.3% |
| 2024-02-23 | -0.4% | -1.8% |
| 2024-05-08 | +2.6% | +3.9% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
AGNC's latest 8-K filings: 2026-07-20 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-05-29 (items 8.01); 2026-04-20 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-04-17 (items 5.07); 2026-01-26 (items 2.02, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.