AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $142.72, AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (AFG) is priced for 15.8% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• A specialty underwriter is judged on what it earns on the capital it holds, and American Financial has been earning about 17.5% on its equity while the price asks it to sustain roughly 16.6%. • The pressure point is the investment side rather than the underwriting side: ⟦the annualized return earned on alternative investments was 2.5% in 2025 compared to 6.1% in 2024⟧, and property and casualty net investment income fell 8% to $725 million. • Second quarter results arrive after the close on Au
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472 institutional managers reported holding AFG in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 68% of the company; the top 10 hold 42%. 68 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, FMR (Fidelity), among others. On the short side, 2.0M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 2% of shares outstanding (3.8 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
AFG has cut its share count 2% over the past five years, spending $396.00M on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (17 and counting); the current rate is $7.28 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $1.83B in dividends and $305.00M in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at AFG over the trailing three years: 2024: 1 buy totaling $150k; 2025: 1 buy totaling $363k. 15 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
AFG's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-05 | -9.2% | +0.9% |
| 2023-11-04 | -1.1% | +10.3% |
| 2024-02-24 | +0.8% | +1.0% |
| 2024-05-04 | -1.0% | -6.1% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
AFG's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-05 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-05-21 (items 5.07); 2026-04-30 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-02-18 (items 5.02, 9.01); 2026-02-04 (items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.