ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND CO
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $81.68, ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND CO (ADM) is priced for +5.3% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• Roughly $80.6 billion of revenue moves through this business a year and barely a penny and a half of each dollar survives as operating profit, which is not a defect but the shape of grain merchandising: Ag Services alone supplies 51% of revenue, with crushing, refined products, sweeteners and nutrition splitting the rest. • The specific risk is that the recovery already assumed in the shares depends on Washington as much as on weather, since the 10-K lists among its risks ⟦changes in governmen
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1,078 institutional managers reported holding ADM in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 82% of the company; the top 10 hold 55%. 164 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock, State Street, among others. On the short side, 14.8M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 3% of shares outstanding (4.6 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
ADM has cut its share count 14.2% over the past five years, spending $6.45B on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (18 and counting), raised 17 years straight; the current rate is $2.04 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $2.71B in dividends and $4.00B in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at ADM over the trailing three years: 2026: 1 buy totaling $487k. 15 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
ADM's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-26 | +4.6% | -12.1% |
| 2023-10-25 | -1.9% | +1.6% |
| 2024-03-13 | +6.1% | +3.1% |
| 2024-05-01 | -3.8% | +7.4% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
ADM's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-12 (items 5.02); 2026-08-10 (items 9.01); 2026-08-04 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-07-23 (items 5.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-12 (items 5.02, 5.07).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.