Alcoa Corp
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $50.24, Alcoa Corp (AA) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~12.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• The share count has climbed about 9.1% a year since 2022, which usually signals a company funding itself by selling pieces of itself, and here financed the opposite: ⟦"Alumina Shares outstanding were exchanged for 78,772,422 shares of Alcoa common stock"⟧, buying in the 40% of the bauxite and alumina joint venture Alcoa did not already own. • The market is paying for operating profit in the alumina business to shrink about 2.1% a year, so the bar Alcoa has to clear is low and what decides the
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734 institutional managers reported holding AA in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 75% of the company; the top 10 hold 45%. 183 opened new positions that quarter. Held by BlackRock, Vanguard Group, FMR (Fidelity), among others. On the short side, 8.1M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 3% of shares outstanding (1.5 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
AA's share count grew 41.2% over the past five years even with $650.00M spent on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has for 5 years running; the current rate is $0.10 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $256.00M in dividends.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
No open-market insider buys on file at AA over the trailing three years. Absence is a fact about the company, not a signal. 19 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
AA's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-28 | +6.7% | -16.4% |
| 2023-10-27 | -12.7% | +44.6% |
| 2024-02-22 | +2.3% | +29.5% |
| 2024-05-03 | -1.7% | +15.4% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
AA's latest 8-K filings: 2026-07-16 (items 2.02, 9.01); 2026-07-02 (items 1.01, 8.01, 9.01); 2026-07-01 (items 7.01, 9.01); 2026-05-11 (items 5.02, 5.07, 9.01); 2026-05-04 (items 1.01, 2.03, 9.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.